Sunday 5 May 2013

Muslim population growth 1990 - 2030

Muslim population growth 1990 - 2030Felix Strüning 1 16 February 2011

The Muslim world population continues to grow and is still faster than the non-Muslim. This is the result of the end of January 2011 study published in The Future of the Global Muslim population of the U.S. Pew Research Center's Forum on Religion & Public Life. In it, the researchers analyze statistical data from all countries of the world, to the development of Muslim populations to trace since 1990 and to make forecasts to 2030.
Here are some key findings summarized first, before individual, relevant figures for Europe and Germany are discussed in terms of their importance. It's mostly a matter of creating a research and discussion basis for EU-comparative perspectives. 1
Global Trends
The Muslim world population will increase by 35 percent over the next 20 years. If one 2010 of 1.6 billion Muslims around the world, it should be 2030 already 2.2 billion. Thus, the Muslim population is growing almost twice as fast (on average 1.5 percent per year), as the non-Muslim (an average of 0.7 percent per year). Nevertheless, even the Muslim population growth is slowing: From 1990 to 2010, there were an average of 2.2 percent per year more Muslims (see Figure 1). Here in Muslim-dominated countries, the birth rate depends strongly on the level of education of women: In the eight countries with the lowest standard education for these girls get an average of 5 children. In the five countries with the highest standard education, there are on average only 2.3 children per woman.


Figure 1: Annual global population growth of Muslims and non-Muslims in comparison. Source: Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life (2011: 16).
The global Muslim population is very young and remains in relation to the non-Muslim. The number of Muslim teens and twenties peaked around the turn of the millennium. Nevertheless, the proportion of Muslim by 15 - to 29-year increase of people worldwide currently around a quarter in 2030 to almost 30 percent (in 1990 it amounted to one-fifth).
Israel and the Near / Middle East 2
With the exception of Israel, Lebanon and Sudan, all countries in the region will be populated Muslim in 2030 at least 75 percent, Lebanon and Sudan to over 50 percent. In Israel, the proportion of Muslims will rise from the current 17.7 per cent over the next twenty years to 23.3 percent. Since 1990, the amount of Israeli Muslims from 0.6 to 1.3 million had more than doubled. 2030 should then be 2.1 million.
America
In the U.S. it is 2030 more than twice as many Muslims give as now, especially by high immigration and higher birth rates of Muslims. Currently, 2.6 million Muslims living in the United States in twenty years there will be 6.2 million. The U.S. is also the only region in the world in which will increase the annual population growth of Muslims in 2020 still strong and then fall off. Around two thirds of Muslims now living in the U.S. are first generation immigrants, so suffered itself, mostly from Pakistan and Bangladesh.
In Canada, the number of Muslims in the next twenty years will be even nearly triple to an estimated nearly 2.7 million.
Europe
Also in Europe, there will be about a third more Muslims by 2030. The proportion of the population increased from the current 6 percent to 8 percent, ie 44.1 million Muslims now living in Europe will be 58.2 million in two decades. Since 1990 (29.6 million), which would almost double.
The majority of this growth will always come back to migration. Nevertheless, the Muslim population growth is slowing in Europe due to declining birth rates and an increasingly restricted migration (see Figure 2).


Figure 2: Annual population growth of Muslims and non-Muslims in Europe compared. Source: Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life (2011: 123).
The following are some values ​​for a selection of European countries are discussed. Besides Germany were elected for: Austria and Switzerland because they are German neighbors and also (in some cases), the UK and France because of their large Muslim populations, Denmark and the Netherlands due to their altered migration policy in recent years, Sweden and Belgium because they both 2030 will have in Europe with the largest Muslim populations.
The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life has very clear interactive maps provided in the online presentation of the study on which to sort by region or country, read the individual developments on a timeline and can track (Figure 3).


Figure 3: Screenshot of the interactive map of Europe, online presentation by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life (2011). 3Country 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030World 1,050,963,000 1,320,693,000 1,619,314,000 1,913,499,000 2,190,154,000Europe 29,650,000 36,980,000 44,138,000 51,573,000 58,209,000Belgium 266,000 333,000 638,000 905,000 1,149,000Denmark 109,000 164,000 226,000 272,000 317,000Germany 2,506,000 3,648,000 4,119,000 4,878,000 5,545,000France 568,000 1,401,000 4,704,000 5,818,000 6,860,000Great Britain 1,172,000 1,590,000 2,869,000 4,231,000 5,567,000Netherlands 344,000 907,000 914,000 1,141,000 1,365,000Austria 161,000 338,000 475,000 634,000 799,000Sweden 147,000 226,000 451,000 730,000 993,000Switzerland 148,000 306,000 433,000 552,000 663,000

Table 1: Absolute number of Muslims in comparison. Data: Compiled from material of the online presentation of the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life (2011). 4
Looking first at Table 1, the absolute numbers of Muslim population growth in European countries compared with Europe and the world, it is immediately evident that especially many Muslims live in France, Britain and Germany. In the other selected countries, Muslims have not yet exceeded the limit of one million. Especially in France, the Muslim population in the last ten years has massively increased while they grow more evenly in the UK and Germany. In Figure 4, one can understand these different developments well, they are in the report by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life is not explained (all countries not represented here are among the absolute values ​​of the Netherlands).

Figure 4: Evolution of the absolute population growth of Muslims in selected European countries. Own presentation material from the online presentation of the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life (2011). 5
If we look now to the development of the percentage share of Muslim population (see Table 2) in the European countries, the curves are of course considerably steeper, as the indigenous population decreases at the same time. The only exception was in the last ten years, the Netherlands, where, although the absolute number of Muslims increased from 907,000 to 914,000, the Muslim population, however, slightly decreased from 5.7 to 5.5 percent.
In France, however, the visible already in the absolute numbers of Muslims explosive growth of the last decade is particularly clear. Belgium generally has a very high population growth of Muslims and in 2030, as France have a Muslim share of more than ten percent. Meanwhile, the European-wide development is far more evenly, to the other European countries studied here, this is true, which is why they are not listed separately in Figure 5.Country 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030World 19.9 21.6 23.4 24.9 26.4Europe 4.1 5.1 6 7 8Belgium 2.7 3.3 6 8.2 10.2Denmark 2.1 3.1 4.1 4.9 5.6Germany 3.2 4.5 5 6.1 7.1France 1 2.4 7.5 9 10.3Great Britain 2 2.7 4.6 6.5 8.2Netherlands 2.3 5.7 5.5 6.7 7.8Austria 2.1 4.2 5.7 7.4 9.3Sweden 1.7 2.6 4.9 7.5 9.9Switzerland 2.2 4.3 4.7 7 8.1
Table 2: Share of total Muslim population in comparison, in percent. Data: Compiled from material of the online presentation of the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life (2011). 6


Figure 5: Evolution of the percentage proportion of the population of Muslims in selected European countries. Own presentation material from the online presentation of the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life (2011). 7
Referring again to the global, European and German perspective together, it is a relatively comparable growth visible (Figure 6). The proportion of Muslim populations in European countries in the global Muslim population roughly remains generally the same. Only in France, the massive growth of the last decade is clearly seen here no longer live 0.1 but 0.3 percent of Muslims worldwide.
Germany always lies just below the European average proportion of Muslim population, although it has a very high absolute number of Muslims.

Figure 6: Evolution of the percentage proportion of the population of Muslims worldwide, in Europe and in Germany. Own presentation material from the online presentation of the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life (2011). 8
Data sources and factors influencing
However, it is again critical to consider the validity of such predictions. Often the data are based on estimates and extrapolations. On Germany can be seen for example that reported for 2010 data come from studies of 2008 etc.. Many of these studies are based on the micro-census of 2005, in which again religion was not queried. Therefore, it can only be closed due to the country of origin on being Muslim often. It was also generally sorted in the present study, only the self-understanding as a Muslim, but not after adjustment differences, religion, etc.
Due to the world in many states implemented or to be implemented in the years 2010 and 2011, large census, the researchers hope in the future more and better data. In this case, e.g. queried in Germany in the 2011 census, the great religious affiliation, what can expect reliable figures on Muslims living here.
The researchers give to yourself that changes the influence of factors may affect the development of massive population. Key factors are for example Immigration laws, economic conditions, natural disasters, armed conflicts, scientific discoveries, social movements and political unrest.
Nevertheless hereby present calculations can serve as a basis for comparative considerations. May be set about with respect to how the indigenous population is set against the Muslim minorities and how much contact with Muslims citizens who live to how many Muslims in the country overall.

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